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Let’s say that market size is 100, 120 and 140 in three successive years. ou have a choice as to how to estimate growth rate:
Last two years only: 120(1 +g) = 140
140/120 = 1.167 , g = 0.167 or 16.7%
Or all three years 100 x (1+ g)(1 + g) = 140
(1 +g)(1 + g) = 140/100 = 1.4
1+g = Square root(1.40) = 1.183
g = 0.183 = 18.3%
The second method takes more years into account so might give a better estimate of market growth rate. However, the first method takes only the latest years into account so might give a more up-do date growth rate.
I found this reply by GROMIT given last year to a similar question.
Thank you Gromit!
