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June 9, 2021 at 4:12 am
Great. Explained very well.
John Moffat says
June 9, 2021 at 4:17 pm
Thank you for your comment 🙂
March 23, 2021 at 11:48 am
The formula to find out the Average trend is:
(Last trend – first trend) / (no. of set of data – 1)
I want to understand why we minus by 1.
March 23, 2021 at 3:15 pm
Don’t rely on learning formulae for this exam.
Suppose there are four observations: 1, 2, 3 and 4
There are three differences 1 to 2; 2 to 3, and 3 to 4.
March 23, 2021 at 6:14 pm
Thanks sir for the logic. This is what I was looking for.
August 27, 2020 at 4:14 pm
what is the reason the average needs to be brought down to zero? I don’t understand this area.
August 27, 2020 at 6:15 pm
Some quarters are above the average and some are below the average. Since the average is in the ‘middle’ the total of the differences above the average must be the same as the total of the differences below the average – so they should add up to zero.
August 27, 2020 at 4:06 pm
Under Multiplicative model, I think there is an error under 2000 q3. shouldn’t it be 95.35% instead of 91.35%
August 27, 2020 at 6:17 pm
Yes it should – it is a silly mistake of mine. However the printed answer in the lecture notes has it correct 🙂
June 12, 2020 at 4:59 pm
If using the results of example 1 to forecast using regression analysis, which sets of figures would be considered X and which would be Y?
June 13, 2020 at 9:01 am
Y would be the sales, and X would be the quarters (numbered consecutively).
June 4, 2020 at 11:45 am
Thank you, John, for the lecture. Why it is 400, where this number comes from?
June 4, 2020 at 3:30 pm
I assume you mean the total of the seasonal variations. Each of them are a little above or a little below 100%. The average of all of them should be 100% and therefore the total of 4 of them should be 400%
June 5, 2020 at 12:50 pm
Thank you so much. I understand know.
June 5, 2020 at 4:16 pm
You are welcome 🙂
May 15, 2020 at 12:08 pm
I don’t understand why the sum of the averages have to add up to 0
May 15, 2020 at 2:51 pm
It is not the averages that add up to zero. It is the differences from the averages that should add up to zero – some are below the average and some are above the average, but the average is in the middle.
May 14, 2020 at 9:18 pm
Thank you so much. This lecture really simplified this for me.
February 7, 2020 at 12:29 pm
I don’t understand why the centred average of 86 is said to be near quarter 3 than 2?
Please could you explain to me
February 7, 2020 at 2:34 pm
The 4-quarter average of the first four quarters is in the middle – so is in between quarters 2 and 3.
Similarly the 4 quarters average of the next four quarters is in the middle – so is between quarter 3 and 4.
When we centre them we take the average of the middle of quarters 2 and 3 and the middle of quarters 3 and 4, and this then corresponds to quarter 3.
February 22, 2020 at 9:06 am
In the multiplicative model, the total averages arrives to 400.26%,so do we need to reduce the .26% to arrive at 400%??
February 22, 2020 at 12:53 pm
February 24, 2020 at 1:42 am
OK, thank you 🙂
February 24, 2020 at 6:58 am
January 21, 2020 at 11:51 am
Hi, I don’t understand why total +0.69 must be substracted until it become zero? Where do -0.17 and -0.18 come from?
January 21, 2020 at 2:42 pm
The differences are all differences about an average – some are above the average and some are below the average but because they are all difference about an average the net figure should be zero. As I explain in the lecture, the reason they don’t exactly add up to zero is because the first two and the last two observations have nothing to compare with.
At the moment they add up to a total of +0.69, so to make the total add up to zero we need to subtract 0.69. We subtract an equal amount from each of the 4 quarters. However because 0.69/4 = 0.1725 and we are only working to 2 decimal places, we subtract 0.18 from one of them and 0.17 from the others (and it does not matter at all which one you subtract 0.18 from).
November 11, 2019 at 7:51 am
How do you calculate average change in the trend?
November 11, 2019 at 9:46 am
The only reason for wanting to know the average change in the trend would be for forecasting for the future. To forecast the trend we would take the total change for the periods given in the question and divide by the number of periods to get the average change per period.
October 1, 2019 at 2:01 am
I was able to find them….
August 3, 2019 at 6:26 am
The calculated percent of the 3rd quater of year 2000 is 95.35 but while taken down to calculate the average percent it was entered as 91.35. Therefore the average percent of the 3rd quater should be 95.38 and there should be a difference of 2 ?
August 3, 2019 at 10:01 am
Thanks. I will check and if I have made a mistake I will correct it.
However the idea should still be clear (and I think the printed answer in the notes is still correct 🙂 )
June 28, 2019 at 7:39 am
For additive model, it should add up to 0 because the variations are above or less than 0?
June 29, 2019 at 9:15 am
June 18, 2019 at 12:15 am
will all of the above be required in the exam?
June 18, 2019 at 7:31 am
Not the whole exercise – just extracts from it (but you need to understand the whole exercise to be able to be able to attempt extracts).
You will find plenty of examples of how it can be asked in your Revision Kit (you must buy a Revision Kit from one of the ACCA approved publishers, because they have lots of exam-standard questions for you to practice).
December 26, 2018 at 7:04 pm
Hi I think there is an error in the video, when calculating the Multiplicative Model quarterly average the Q3 amount was written as 91.35% and not 95.35%, just want to know if i miss understood.
December 27, 2018 at 10:21 am
Yes – you are correct. Sorry 🙁
The answer at the back of the free lecture notes is correct 🙂
December 7, 2018 at 2:20 am
Have the videos been updated?? I see a few differences compared to the videos that I saw last week……
December 7, 2018 at 6:49 am
You can’t have, because nothing has changed since last week 🙂
December 7, 2018 at 9:13 pm
The reason I am asking is because the comments have disappeared from all the video lectures and there is a slight tuning prior to the point in the video where they say “This is a lecture from open tuition…….” and also the headings to all chapters are printed in red (or blue I am guessing) and not written with the black marker like it was previously…..?
December 8, 2018 at 8:57 am
I don’t understand. The lectures have not changed, and all the comments are still here 🙂
December 7, 2018 at 2:19 am
Why is it that the actual value (when calculating seasonal variation) is taken from the third quarter; why is it that the first two quarters of the year 2000 are not considered?
December 7, 2018 at 6:51 am
Because (as I do explain in the lecture) there is nothing to compare the first two (and the last two) quarters with.
December 7, 2018 at 9:07 pm
Ohh I get it now…makes sense thank you!
December 8, 2018 at 8:56 am
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