Risk and Uncertainty

Comments

1. faizifaizi says:

i have only one problem with other questions..is which amounts i should take on which side..i mean which amounts on the side and which amounts on the top????

• johnmoffat says:

It doesn’t matter which way round you show the table. All the matters is that can calculate the correct profits and make the right decisions.

• faizifaizi says:

thanks sir for the quick reply…and i have one other confusion..in the part 2 of this lecture ..for maximax and maximin you were taking the profits horizontally but for the regret table you took the profits vertically why is that????

• johnmoffat says:

We are doing two different things.

With maximax and maximin we are simply finding the maximum or minimum profit that can be made from each of the choices available to us.

With minimax regret, we are not basing the decision on the profits that we make, but on the potential profit that we will be losing if we have made the wrong decision.
So….to produce the regret table by calculating for each possible outcome how much potential profit we would have lost by making each of the possible choices (the difference between the profit we could have made if we had made the best decision and the profit we would actually have made). Then we effectively take a maximin type approach but on the regret table.

It is a hard thing to explain in words, but I do suggest you watch the part of the lecture again where I go through a very tiny example to explain the logic (and then I apply the same logic to the full question).

• faizifaizi says:

thanks again for reply sir…i got it i watched the lecture and now i m able to solve the questions….thanks very much..you are the best teacher of f5.. thanks again..

2. Well, Got it! Thanks

3. I cant play the videos on my Samsung Galaxy note. It plays for three seconds and goes off. Please help

4. Dthind says:

Very well explained!!

5. In Example 1, the price for the contract is \$9 p.u. and the selling price will be \$11 p.u. So shouldn’t the profit be \$2 rather than \$3?

• johnmoffat says:

@sardarahmedyarkhan, The contract is to sell units. The cost is \$6 per unit whoever we sell to.

So if we sell on the contract the profit is 9 – 6 = \$3.

6. fahim2009 says:

thanks a lot sir,this lecture saved me a lot time,God bless you
one question how do you prepare such video lectures,what software or device do you use ?

• johnmoffat says:

@fahim2009, Windows XP tablet edition

7. yes, but it’s only out by 100 so it doesn’t really matter – besides, it’s the lowest expected value so we’d not have chosen it anyway, and as it’s a value out of the middle of the table it’s not even the max or the min for that contract.

8. acca7872 says:

whether we can download this video?

• admin says:

Lectures are for watching ONLINE only,
this is the only way to keep this site free!

9. gyanmichael says:

God bless opentuition: all administrators and tutors

10. This is more helpfull, tnk you all.

11. baaba5 says:

Average profit for 300 units on contract at 0.3 probability is 1020!

• @baaba5, Yes. I am about to say the same.

• @baaba5, Thanks for pointing that out, I got the 1020 as well….

12. abdul1975 says:

pretty good lecture…..

13. tele says:

why does the lecture keep cutting! admin please help

• admin says:

somewhere between you and the video server internet is slow.. I don’t know it is is your end, try another browser. (restart your modem/router)

14. beanobill says:

Arrrrgggggghhhhh – black screen of zero learning (

Admin, your genius is required!!!!

• admin says:

please check the support page for help

15. Mugadza says:

i getting you very much.God bless you

16. sweetusudu says:

hai,in example 1 expected value for 300 units,the answer for 3400×0.3=1020 not 1120

17. oghomen says:

I can’t download the video lecture…..just have a blank space. What do I do pls?

• fahim2009 says:

@oghomen, it cannot be downloaded

18. sharons says:

any lecture on decision tree? is it likely to come in exam

19. malik123456 says:

unable to run lectures ?? can any one help

20. greenzstarr says:

i usually learn quite alot from these lectures..thank you kindly

21. lolo822 says:

Thanks good lecture