#### Risk and Uncertainty: Please note that this lecture relates to Chapter 10 of the Course Notes (not chapter 9 as stated in the lecture). The example covered is on page 46 of the Course Notes.

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Mashal Khan says

Sir,

In BPP revision Kit Question 38 (Shifters and Haulage) SH. The probability of the higher demand figure of 0.6 is given in the question but the lower demand figure is not there. And in the answer to that question, they have written 0.4 to be the probability of the lower demand.

Now the problem is, that I don’t see any where in the question that the probability of the lower demand figure is 0.4.

Have they split the probability of 1 into 0.6 and 0.4 for high and low demand respectively? because i don’t see any reason where 0.4 had come from.

John Moffat says

You must ask questions like this in the Ask the Tutor Forum and not as a comment on a lecture.

If there two possibilities and one has a 0.6 (or 60%) probability then the other must have a 0.4 (or 40%) chance of occurring. The total probability must always be 1 (or 100%) because one of the two is certain to happen.

Mashal Khan says

I am really sorry for asking the question at the wrong place. I’ll be very careful next time. Anyway, your answer was really helpful.

Thank you so much. You’re amazing… (Y)

John Moffat says

You are welcome

sunday says

Thanks. I now understand how the figures are derived. I had problem with maximum capacity of 1,200 uints till now.

John Moffat says

Great

hossm says

Hi, sir john Moffat , thank you very much for the amazing lecture,you are amazing

precious says

Hello John Just want to say THANK YOU!.

That’s all.

John Moffat says

And thank you from me