#### Risk and Uncertainty: Please note that this lecture relates to Chapter 10 of the Course Notes (not chapter 9 as stated in the lecture). The example covered is on page 46 of the Course Notes.

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Hoosniddin says

hi, thanks for the video. I have a question, perhaps pls correct/comment if wrong. I thought i’d get the same results as yours if I do the following way (but the results are different):

1. Find the expected demand (quantity) –> 600

2. For each contract amount, calculate profits, given expected demand and factory capacity:

-> 300*3 + 600*5 = 3900;

-> 500*3 + 600*5 = 4500;

-> 700*3 + 500*5 = 4600;

-> 800*3 + 400*5 = 4400.

Thanks in advance.

John Moffat says

No – you must not do that.

Always you need to calculate all possible profits and then calculate the expected profit.

Hoosniddin says

Thanks, Mr. Moffat, for clarification. Actually, I found the mistake in my calculation – it is based on ‘expected demand’; however, the calculation should be based on ‘expected profit’, understood from your explanation “all possible profits”.

John Moffat says

You are correct – you always base it on the expected profits 馃檪

Hasan Abbas says

Hello there,

In the expected value section, why are we multiplying the whole amount of the possible profit by the probability values, like for instance in the a part, isn’t the probability for 400 quantity is 0.2 [20%] but the probability of the remaining 300 quantity is 1 [100%] (contract is 1, because it is certain!)

Please if you could kindly guide. Thank you so much for all your help.

Regards.

John Moffat says

If we decide to sign a contract for 300, then certainly the profit from these is certain (and is therefore included in each of the total profit calculations). However the rest of the profit is not certain (and therefore the total profit is not certain) because it depends on the level of normal demand.

cynthia says

hi sir,

thank you for the lectures it makes me understand and is a shorter version of the coursework notes..

i have a question, i do not understand how you got the probabilities of the demand ie, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.1. kindly explain.. and in such questions is it a must to calculate the expected values?

John Moffat says

The probabilities are given in the question (I assume that you have downloaded the free lecture notes that go with the lectures) – you cannot be expected to calculate them.

With regard to the expected values, the question will specify whether or not they are required (usually they will be required 馃檪 )

Ahlam says

Hi sir,

I am totally lost in example 1 cant seem to derive any answer i have been stuck for 2 days now please help me. Kindly guide me through it?

John Moffat says

Have you watched the lecture carefully, because I cannot guide you through it any differently than I guide through in the lecture.

Udara says

Hello Sir,

Your lectures are crystal clear and very easy to understand the huge contents in text books in a lesser time.

Have I mistaken the part that where you calculate the Expected values for 3400×0.3=1120? Shouldn’t it be 1020? Have I mistaken or were there a reason for 1120 to arrive at? 馃檪

John Moffat says

It was a little mistake – sorry 馃檪

Udara says

Oh alright 馃檪

John Moffat says

馃檪

adanma says

Great lecture. Helped with my revision. Thanks John

John Moffat says

Thank you 馃檪

Mashal Khan says

Sir,

In BPP revision Kit Question 38 (Shifters and Haulage) SH. The probability of the higher demand figure of 0.6 is given in the question but the lower demand figure is not there. And in the answer to that question, they have written 0.4 to be the probability of the lower demand.

Now the problem is, that I don’t see any where in the question that the probability of the lower demand figure is 0.4.

Have they split the probability of 1 into 0.6 and 0.4 for high and low demand respectively? because i don’t see any reason where 0.4 had come from.

John Moffat says

You must ask questions like this in the Ask the Tutor Forum and not as a comment on a lecture.

If there two possibilities and one has a 0.6 (or 60%) probability then the other must have a 0.4 (or 40%) chance of occurring. The total probability must always be 1 (or 100%) because one of the two is certain to happen.

Mashal Khan says

I am really sorry for asking the question at the wrong place. I’ll be very careful next time. Anyway, your answer was really helpful.

Thank you so much. You’re amazing… (Y)

John Moffat says

You are welcome 馃檪

sunday says

Thanks. I now understand how the figures are derived. I had problem with maximum capacity of 1,200 uints till now.

John Moffat says

Great 馃檪

hossm says

Hi, sir john Moffat , thank you very much for the amazing lecture,you are amazing

John Moffat says

And thank you for the comment 馃檪

precious says

Hello John Just want to say THANK YOU!.

That’s all. 馃檪

John Moffat says

And thank you from me 馃檪

Aley says

Dear John,

The probabilities relates to ordinary profits ,But profits are certain for signing contract at different levels ,so ,in expected value ,why we taking whole profits and then multiplying with probability,as i understand it includes also profits of contracts also..please rectify me if i m going wrong ….

John Moffat says

You are quite correct in saying that the profit from the contract is fixed at each level.

However, there are two problems in what you are suggesting.

One is that the question specifically asks for a table showing all of the possible total profits (and exams always do), so if you do not show the total profit for all the possibilities you will lose a lot of marks.

The second problem is that because we have to supply the contract amount, we are not always able to supply the full normal demand. If you correctly took this into account, then you would end up with the same final answer (but you would still lose a lot of marks because of the first problem).

muhdin says

Dear professor.

Regarding example one of that you are working in this video, you were given the demand with uncertainty and you were told that customer offered you to sell your products to him for 9 in turn for a fixed quantity every month, therefore my question is, how did you come up with outcome and decision sides of the matrix….as per your calculation, you used demand as decisions(options available) and the fixed offer from the customer as outcome….. how I perceived was that the demand(given in the question) is the production levels available and that is why you have chosen it as decision options available.

John Moffat says

The production will be equal to the total demand, provided it does not exceed the capacity of 1,200 units.

The demand will be the total of whatever we sign the contract for (which will have to be supplied) plus the normal demand.

The decision is as to what level of contract to sign (we are told this in part (b)).

The uncertainty is the level of normal demand (we know this because the second paragraph of the question says so).

Lilit says

Hi,

Once more thanks for lectures.Could we come to the same conclusion if we calculate average demand, and assuming that is the demand, calculate all profits and choose the max ?

tayiba1 says

when calculating expected values the profit giving 3400 with probability of 0.3 it will equal 1020 not 1120 this must be corrected immediately.

thank you

John Moffat says

It will certainly not be corrected immediately and do not ever insist that that it must be!!!

(If you had read the later comments on this page then you would have seen that this has already been pointed out)

Anyone can make tiny arithmetic mistake – what is important for the exam is that you can prove that you understand. A simple arithmetic mistake is trivial and only ever loses at most one mark.

If you are not happy with that then you should get books or lectures from elsewhere and pay for them (and then be surprised as to how many mistakes they make!).

tayiba1 says

thank you perfectly understood the topic you give very good lectures especially when in classroom and ask questions which are very lively which makes the lesson very interesting i am always enjoying your jokes passed around u really make acca enjoyable.

vttrang says

Got the same problem with the expected value but understood the logic now, hope it can help those who are confused:

The total of all probabilities is 1 so whether you calculate the contract profit separately or together with the other demand profits, it’s all the same.

John Moffat says

Except that questions usually ask specifically to state all possible total profits, in which case there is no choice.

eduardoneves44 says

thanks professor you are the best.

Maryam says

Dear John!

You are simply the best! I rest my case!

Tyler says

Sir, for the par b (i) Expected values, why are we taking the profit of the the contract as well and multiplying it by a probability which is for the demand only?

John Moffat says

Because each of the profits results from each of the different demands.

So the probability of getting each of the profits will be the same as the probability of each of the demands.

Macha says

I had the same question. Thank you very much.

Xiaowen says

Hello Prof Moffat,

i have a bit trouble understanding when we were calculating the expected value, for example, contract 300, if we are sure of this 300 units, why we calculated by 2900*0.2, rather 900+2000*0.2, since it’s the 400 units that are uncertain.

Thanks!

Xiaowen says

just saw the below comment, and did a quick cal for

method in the video : 2900*0.2 +3400*0.3+4400*0.4+5400*0.1 = 4000

however, 400*5*0.2 + 500*5*0.3+700*5*0.4+900*5*0.1 +300*3 = 3900

get more confused……

Xiaowen says

Figured out the problem. it was the math in the video that got a problem. should be 3900. Thanks for the nice lecture!

eniola03 says

Hello John,Thank you very much for your video

It is really helpful but I want to verify on what you said about the possible profit.,you said we shouldn’t calculate all the profit in the exam as it might take our time in the exam. but what if the marks are allocated according to all the possible profit calculated or It doesn’t matter and Like how many do you think we should calculate in the exam?

John Moffat says

You misunderstood me 馃檪

You should calculate all possible profits. What I said was that since the same arithmetic keeps repeating, there is no need to spend time showing the workings for all of them (if you can calculate them straight on your calculator).

Show workings for a few of them (to prove you know what you are doing) but you don’t need to show the workings for all to them (unless you need workings for your own benefit).

Sherif says

Dear Mick thank you for your help ,

can you advice which is the best calculators are suitable for acca? is caiso FC-200v suitable ?

thank you

John Moffat says

Who is Mick? There is no Mick working for me on OpenTuition! 馃檪

Any scientific calculator will do – the casio FC-200 is fine.

The only functions that you need for F5 are log, x^n, and n’th root.

(the same applies for later exams, so you won’t need to by another calculator later 馃檪 If you decide to take P4 then you will need a button with ‘e’ on it, but if it has the above functions then it will certainly have ‘e’ as well!!)

John Moffat says

I am please that you are now all sorted 馃檪

ammarsiraj says

A very nice explanation, thankyou.

marf111 says

Hello, first of all thank you for the lectures, they are very helpful.

I only have one question. At b) shouldn’t we add both:

– the expected profit from the ordinary demand

and

– the profit generated by the contract with the special customer

to get a total resulting profit?

I.e. for a contract of 800 we get an expected value from ordinary demand as you calculated, of $4,400, and a profit from contract of 800×3 = 2,400, so a total of 6800 (which looks the highest).

Thank you.

John Moffat says

No.

The profits calculated in (a) for all possibilities already include both the profits from ordinary demand and profits from the contract sales. (And don’t forget anyway that the total production is limited which means that in many of the cases the normal demand cannot be met in full)

mehreenkhan says

Hi i was having problems as to how we work out these payoff table numbers.

and thanks to this lecture.. I know am clear..

Thanks Sir !

farah says

i want to know how to calculate conteibution in risk and uncertainity question

John Moffat says

Contribution is the selling price less the variable costs.

If you are meaning the question in our Course Notes, then the contribution per unit for ‘normal’ sales is $5 (11 – 6), and for ‘contract’ sales is $3 (9 – 6).

The workings to get the total contribution for each possible outcome are shown in the lecture.

babykim says

In contract 300

3400*.0.3 =1020??????

John Moffat says

I am not clear as to what your question is.

3400 x 0.3 = 1020

Yes! So?

Nakita says

Hello John,

I think what she/he meant is that there was an error in your calculation during the lecture, when the expected value of the contract for 300 was being done.

Your calculation= $3,400 x 0.3= $ 1120

babykim says

thanks Nakita….:) thats exactly what I meant ….

John Moffat says

Sorry – it was a mistake. (Nobody is perfect 馃檪 Anyway it would only lose me half a mark)

The answer at the back of the Course Notes is correct, and so I am not going to re-record the lecture.

babykim says

hi john

The intention wasn’t to show you up , …. This is a paper that I am struggling with and just want to ensure that I maximize the best possible options to help me get through . So please don t get offensive if i question an answer that looks a bit odd 馃檪 …. I enjoy your lecture s and just want to ensure after listening to it that I am 100% confident to go on to practice questions….. nb I actually find your presentation style way better than my present lecturer

John Moffat says

Hey – don’t worry 馃檪

I am not offended – thanks for pointing out the mistake.

Joseph says

@admin

thanks so much to opentuition for this kindness. my only and most worrying problem has to do with the constant break in connection. i would be more thankful if there should be any way these videos could be downloaded.

John Moffat says

I am sorry, but the break in connection is due to the internet at your end.

The videos are not downloadable – this is the only way that we can keep this site free of charge.

ekadoro says

Hello, I have one question: when we calculate expected value why do we multiply the whole profit by the probability? I mean, we are only unsure of the demand value, not the contract which is certain.

John Moffat says

You must always calculate the expected proft. I am guessing that you just want to calculate the expected deman (in units) but this will not give you the right answer (except by coincidence). (If you don\t believe me try some extreme values and see what happens – fo example a profit of 100 from the contact units and $1 per unit from normal demand 馃檪 )

ekadoro says

Thank you for your answer. I just realized that my question was a bit silly as the results will be the same. What I was trying to understand was why we multiply the total profit (both from the contract and normal demand) by the probability, why not multiply profits from normal demand and just add the profit from the contract after that to get the expected value (cause profits from demand is uncertain and profits from contract is certain):

For the contract size 500:

400*5*0.2=400

500*5*0.3=750

700*5*0.4=1400

700*5*0.1=350

So the expected value for the contract size 500 will be 400+750+1400+350+1500(contract profit 500*3) =4400.

The answer is the same cause the probability for the contract is 1.

Sorry just needed to get to math and common sense inline)))

John Moffat says

Oh thats no problem – it will give the same answer and so that is fine 馃檪

acca2050 says

Is John Moffat is teaching this…I think its not his accent and he teaches extremely brilliantly. Please let me know I am worried.

Many Thanks

John Moffat says

It is me teaching it! Sorry if my accent sounds different 馃檪

No way says

I do have had the same problem as ekadoro did. So for the sake of understanding thoroughly: Can you explain why we multiply the total profit (both from the contract and normal demand) by the probability, Mr Moffat?

I do know that it may easier for you to display the calculations. But that does not show the logic behind of the probability(or still I dont understand the way you think abt probability in this question).

Thanks in adv.

John Moffat says

Here is a simple example to illustrate the idea of expected values.

Suppose the profit per day was 100 with probability of 0.1 and 200 with probability of 0.9.

Effectively it would mean that out of every 10 days, 1 day would give 100 and 9 days would give 200.

So what is the average profit per day? If you add up the profit over 10 days (1 at 100 and 9 at 200) you get 1900. Divide by 10 and you get an average of 190 per day.

Easier is just to multiply by the probabilities and add up:

(100 x 0.1) + (200 + 0.9) = 190.

In this question we need to know the average total profit, so we calculate all the total profits that can occur and then multiply by probabilities to get the average.

No way says

“why not multiply profits from normal demand and just add the profit from the contract after that to get the expected value (cause profits from demand is uncertain and profits from contract is certain)”. That’s what I dont understand.

For the contract size 500:

400*5*0.2=400

500*5*0.3=750

700*5*0.4=1400

700*5*0.1=350

So the expected value for the contract size 500 will be 400+750+1400+350+1500(contract profit 500*3) =4400.

But you did:

500units = (0.2x 3,500)+(0.3×4,000)+(0.5×5,000)=4,400

0.2 or 0.3 are probability of the demand not the contract. So why do u multiply the probability with all the profit(in fact they-the probabilities- are just belong to the original demand and the probability for the contract is 1 or certainty). Why do you come to that way of thinking? Or you do that just because you think that makes your calculation easier? I know that is the same result but It makes me confuse the way you calculate.

Like ekadoro, I just needed to get to math and common sense inline.

Hope you clarify my confusing,

Thank you very much, Mr Moffat.

John Moffat says

@Duong:

You could certainly do what you have written and get the same answer if all the was required was the expected value.

However, part (a) specifically asks for all possible profits that could result (and almost always that is part (a) when it is asked in the exam).

My table does show all possible total profits, but your workings do not show each possible total profit, and so you would lose marks even though you have got the correct expected values.

No way says

Dear Mr John,

I totally agree the way you answer (a) question that means show all possible profits by contracting pay-off table.

At (b) expected profit question, I just have had one little confusion about the way you calculate.That’s all, everything else I absolutely agree with your approach. And If you dont mind can you show me why you do that?

Thank you John.

John Moffat says

OK. In part (a) we have a table showing all the possible total profits for each size of contract that we can choose.

The only reason that the profits differ for one particular contract size is that there are various levels of normal demand that can occur. We know the probability of each of these levels of normal demand, and therefore the probabilities of each of the different total profit are the same as the probabilities of the level of normal demand.

As you agreed earlier, you could get the expected profit a different way, but why do more work? We have set up the table of total profits in part (a) because it is required, so easiest is simply to work out the expected total profit using these figures.

No way says

I knew that we should take advantage the result from (a), but I had not had think that the probabilities of normal demand was the probabilities of total profit, so I didnot dare to calculate that way.

Everything is fine now.

Thank you for showing me, Mr John.

faizifaizi says

i have only one problem with other questions..is which amounts i should take on which side..i mean which amounts on the side and which amounts on the top????

John Moffat says

It doesn’t matter which way round you show the table. All the matters is that can calculate the correct profits and make the right decisions.

faizifaizi says

thanks sir for the quick reply…and i have one other confusion..in the part 2 of this lecture ..for maximax and maximin you were taking the profits horizontally but for the regret table you took the profits vertically why is that????

John Moffat says

We are doing two different things.

With maximax and maximin we are simply finding the maximum or minimum profit that can be made from each of the choices available to us.

With minimax regret, we are not basing the decision on the profits that we make, but on the potential profit that we will be losing if we have made the wrong decision.

So….to produce the regret table by calculating for each possible outcome how much potential profit we would have lost by making each of the possible choices (the difference between the profit we could have made if we had made the best decision and the profit we would actually have made). Then we effectively take a maximin type approach but on the regret table.

It is a hard thing to explain in words, but I do suggest you watch the part of the lecture again where I go through a very tiny example to explain the logic (and then I apply the same logic to the full question).

faizifaizi says

thanks again for reply sir…i got it i watched the lecture and now i m able to solve the questions….thanks very much..you are the best teacher of f5.. thanks again..

tauraiversatile says

Well, Got it! Thanks

lebogangrahlao says

I cant play the videos on my Samsung Galaxy note. It plays for three seconds and goes off. Please help

Dthind says

Very well explained!!

sardarahmedyarkhan says

In Example 1, the price for the contract is $9 p.u. and the selling price will be $11 p.u. So shouldn’t the profit be $2 rather than $3?

John Moffat says

@sardarahmedyarkhan, The contract is to sell units. The cost is $6 per unit whoever we sell to.

So if we sell on the contract the profit is 9 – 6 = $3.

fahim2009 says

thanks a lot sir,this lecture saved me a lot time,God bless you 馃榾

one question how do you prepare such video lectures,what software or device do you use ?

John Moffat says

@fahim2009, Windows XP tablet edition 馃檪

MrMac says

yes, but it’s only out by 100 so it doesn’t really matter – besides, it’s the lowest expected value so we’d not have chosen it anyway, and as it’s a value out of the middle of the table it’s not even the max or the min for that contract.

acca7872 says

whether we can download this video?

admin says

Lectures are for watching ONLINE only,

this is the only way to keep this site free!

gyanmichael says

God bless opentuition: all administrators and tutors

sileshimirani says

This is more helpfull, tnk you all.

baaba5 says

Average profit for 300 units on contract at 0.3 probability is 1020!

alextrunghuynh says

@baaba5, Yes. I am about to say the same.

riannaramrick says

@baaba5, Thanks for pointing that out, I got the 1020 as well….

abdul1975 says

pretty good lecture…..

tele says

why does the lecture keep cutting! admin please help

admin says

somewhere between you and the video server internet is slow.. I don’t know it is is your end, try another browser. (restart your modem/router)

beanobill says

Arrrrgggggghhhhh – black screen of zero learning :o(

Admin, your genius is required!!!!

admin says

please check the support page for help 馃檪

Mugadza says

i getting you very much.God bless you

sweetusudu says

hai,in example 1 expected value for 300 units,the answer for 3400×0.3=1020 not 1120

oghomen says

I can’t download the video lecture…..just have a blank space. What do I do pls?

fahim2009 says

@oghomen, it cannot be downloaded

sharons says

any lecture on decision tree? is it likely to come in exam

malik123456 says

unable to run lectures ?? can any one help

greenzstarr says

i usually learn quite alot from these lectures..thank you kindly

lolo822 says

Thanks good lecture