#### Learning curves: please note that this lecture relates to Chapter 12 of the Course Notes (and not Chapter 11 as stated in the lecture)

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Aley says

Dear John,

In example 6 by formula ,if we calculate total time of 8 units answer verify the doubling rule no need to find total time for 9 units and then subtract 1st unit time ,it means we can calculate total time for n units,But why it is not verifying answer for 7 units why we should find 8 then subtract first unit time.

Prompt reply is highly appreciated.

John Moffat says

Whether using the formula or using the doubling rule, you can only get the time for the first number to be made (i.e. you can calculate the time for the first 4, or the first 5 or the first 6 and so on). If you have made some units already, then you cannot work out directly the time for another 4, or another 5, or another 6 etc..

The only way you can do it is the way in the lecture.

amg says

thank you for your great lectures!

Bertrand says

Thanks John Moffat for the lecture, is well explained. However, I have one small problem, I wish to know the difference between total time for the next 7 and total time for 7. In example 6 you calculated total time for the next 7 and got 237.5 and I tried to calculate total time for 7 using the formular I got 312.22 . I was hoping to get 237.5. So i was wondering if they don’t mean thesame thing.

John Moffat says

When it says the next 7 it means another 7 after the one already produced – so it bring the total up to 8.

So to get the time for the next 7 you need to calculate the total time for 8 and then subtract the time it took for the first one.

Bertrand says

Dear John,

Thanks for the prompt reply to my question. It is now understood.Thanks once more for the excellent lectures you are giving in this site.

Jonathan says

In the last part of the question where the total time for the 30 batches was calculated, why was the average time of 90.80 multiplied by 30 to get 2,724?

I thought the average time of 90.08 which was calculated for the 30 batches would have been used.

Jonathan says

It was corrected later in the video.

Yosef says

Very well explained but still in the mire with two months to exam

Ehsan says

Hi John,

Do we also have to know, how to calculate learning RATE? Because in BPP text it’s shown how too.

Thanks.

John Moffat says

Yes you do, and I explain how in the lecture.

Ehsan says

Sir, I was referring on how to calculate that 80% rate or 90%. (not log *0.8/log2)

John Moffat says

Sorry – but yes, you can be asked to calculate the learning rate.

However only by working backwards using the doubling rule (not by using the log formula backwards – that cannot be asked)

Ehsan says

Thanks a lot.

Yeah formula one is bit complex though.

Thanks again.

eduardoneves44 says

Thanks john by providing chapter 12 quantitative analysis in budgeting, it was so wonderful.

tendai says

at first i thought we need to calulate the total time for the 30th batch and then 31th batch

tendai says

thanks a lot i really benefited from the lecture

emma1988 says

Thank you for the useful lecture. I was just wondering if u can help me with working it out on the calculator as I can’t seem to find the symbol Xy and +/y to work out the answer for Example 7?

Many Thanks

John Moffat says

I can’t really help, because there are different types of calculator with different ‘logics’ which affects the order in which you press the keys.

Sorry, but you are going to have to search in the manual that came with the calculator

emma1988 says

I thought you might say that I have found how to do the Xy symbol but not the +/- but I’ll have a look at the manual again. Thanks again for the lecture!

Ernest says

Hello Sir, thanks for the great work. I need a clarification. Why is it that when learning rate increases, average time also increases. I thought as learning rate increases which means people learn faster, then average time taken to produce the product should reduce. For example when first unit takes 200hrs and learning rate is 60% then average time is 120hrs for second unit, if the rate increases to 70%, the average time rather increases to 140hrs which confuses if compared to real life.

John Moffat says

I realise that in other contexts we tend to think of it as the higher a percentage it then the better, but in the case of learning rates this is not the case.

The lower the learning rate the faster they are learning. We would want the learning rate to be as low as possible. A learning rate of 70% is better than a learning rate of only 90% – the 70% people are learning faster.

Ernest says

Thanks for the quick response but still not very clear. What does the percentage really mean then? I take it as it means the rate at which the workers are learning and if so then the faster the better so the higher the rate the better. That’s why am thinking that way. Probably it means something different. I will be clear if u can help me with that thing.

John Moffat says

Don’t look for a meaning! All it means is that the average time falls to that percentage of the previous average time.

It is a measure for us to find how fast they are learning, but not in the way that you are trying to interpret it. Too many think that way without understanding how it is working (which is why the examiner once asked as a small part of a question – which is better, a learning rate of 80% or a leaning rate of 90%. The answer is 80%).

(Higher percentages are not always better. If I told you that my company wastes 10% of my raw material and another company wastes 5% of its material, it certainly does not mean that my company is doing better )

Ernest says

I got it. Thanks very much. It means For example, an 80 percent

learning curve means the per unit average

cumulative cost (in hours or dollars) falls to 80

percent of the previous per unit average

cumulative cost as the cumulative output

doubles. Therefore the lower it falls the better.

Thanks very much for your reply.

Mohammed says

Hi John,

Just a note that “r” is defined incorrectly in the notes. It should be “…expressed as a decimal” as opposed to a “…%”.

Thank you for a great lecture as always!

emmanuel says

Sir, how can i determine the learning rate in a learning curve question if it was not given in the question?

John Moffat says

The learning rate will be given in parts of questions where you need it.

As a separate part of a question you could be told how long each of the first and second units/batches take, and then you can work out the learning rate ‘backwards’ using the doubling rule.

emmanuel says

Thank you sir

sunday says

Thanks alot. I got it right in Nigeria with your lecture

wwswidusha says

nice lecture

RAJAN says

heyy sir, what does “r=0″ mean

John Moffat says

It is meaningless because it is impossible.

(Just think, how on earth could the average time per unit be zero – unless the time for the first unit (and all subsequent units) was zero!!)

cherry says

thanks so much

zahreddine says

Thank you sir, this lectures allowed to understand the logic behind the learning curve formula.

kgomotso basiami says

thank u sir this is a wonderful lecture now i do understand the topic on learning curves. God bless u!!

Rakesh says

Hi all,

Could anyone let me know how to use Casio scintific calculator for learning curve formula..say

Y=aX^b = 10*5^-0.152

Your comments will be appreciated.

Thanks

RB

Harris says

Thank you so much. I had problems understanding this before, but now is so clear.

Regards

John Moffat says

Great

marcie157 says

Thanks for scientific calculators!!!

yanisha says

great lecture sir. Can you pls advise if we should emphasise only on theory part for Regression Analysis & Time Series or should we also concentrate on calculatios equally.

thanks

John Moffat says

As is made very clear in the introduction paragraph to the Course Notes, you will not be asked for calculations on regression or on time series. (The calculations are examined in Paper F2)

You are only expected to know the principles. I have only left the calculations in the notes (and lectures) to hopefully make the idea more clear.

yanisha says

Thanks Sir

yanisha says

great lecture sir. Can you ls advise if we should emhasi only o theory art for Regression Analysis & Time Series or should we also cocetryae o calculatios wqually.

thaks

printhan says

Great .thanks a lot

acca2050 says

Dear Sir,

I read in the syllabus for Dec 2013, that the only topic left in the syllabus is learning curve and high-low method in quantitative budgeting…is it?

Many Thanks

John Moffat says

Time series and regression analysis are assumed knowledge from Paper F2. The examiner has said that there will not be detailed calculations on either, but you are expected to be aware of both.

(If you look at the course notes, it actually says this in bold letters. We update our notes every six months and everything in our notes is relevant for the December 2013 exams)

saadsula says

cant watch any lecture today is there any problem.

opentuition_team says

Lectures work fine, please check support page

Abdulkarim says

Someone told me that Time Series is no longer on the syllabus of 2013. Is that true?

John Moffat says

Time series are unlikely to be asked, but they are assumed knowledge from Paper F2. You will certainly not be asked for calculations, but you can be expected to know what time series are.

loopheichuen says

For June 2013 exam, Regression Analysis is not in the syllabus anymore right?

John Moffat says

It is still examinable as assumed knowledge from Paper F2. However you will not be asked for any calculations in Paper F5.

loopheichuen says

Meaning, I just need to know the theoretical part?

John Moffat says

Yes. To be honest, it is not very likely that anything will be asked now. The sort of thing she could expect is for you to be able to mention that regression analysis wold be one technique you could use for forecasting.

loopheichuen says

thank you!!

Rockstar says

Great lecture thanks very much…

irum says

each n every part of topic ,very well explained

Dthind says

Very well explained!!

safwandeshmukh says

Urgent help plzzz tomorrow i have my F5 paper …

In learning curve the formula method how do find values of the logs ??

will i be given log table ??? or should i carry my own ?? or am i allowed to use scientific calculator ?

John Moffat says

@safwandeshmukh, You are not given log tables and you cannot take your own. But you are allowed to use a scientific calculator.

However, almost certainly you will be given the value of b if learning curves are asked.

(but you will still need a scientific calculator to calculate y = ax^b )

sunlee says

Really good lecture!

katswiri says

After this lecture, failing is optional

THANKS!!

manthan5 says

Excellent lecture. Thank you.

edwin2012 says

I like you John! Good lecture!

shelly1568 says

I am working Question 3 on Past Paper Dec 2008. When I calculate the time it takes to fit 199 kitchens using the method provided by OpenTuition, I am arriving at a different answer from the examiner. Could anyone shed some light on this?

nikerahulp says

very helpful lecture….

really best things in life are for free…….

mansikhusi says

Hello

I can not see any lecture on regression analysis on F2 lectures! Can anyone tell me please where do I find it?

Thanks.

kam2189 says

@mansikhusi, Chapter 17 has Regression Analysis

Evgenia says

@kam2189, and in which particular part? there are 4 lectures for Chapter 17 F2?

manojk says

Thanks Open Tuition.Great lecture.

jinjah100 says

understood! great lecture

lydnyaboke2010 says

very useful lecture

kiki0615 says

great ! n useful !!!!

evangeline2000 says

Great.THANK YOU Very much!!

perfecta1 says

Can anyone tell me where I can find a video lecturer for regression analysis? In what chapter of F2 video lectures is it exactly?

Evgenia says

@perfecta1, Same story.. can’t find it there! could be nice if anyone can advice… thanks in advance

s1234 says

Awesome lecture….the only problem i’m facing is once the lecture is almost in it’s last part, it gets back to the beginning!!!

Reached the part where the lecturer was teaching how to calcuate “LOG R” and then the video gets back to beginning….What’s that suppose to be???Any idea!!!

admin says

wait for the lecture to fully load, then press play..